A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
